Who’s Winning the 2025 F1 Title? Let’s Be Honest…

Alright, so we’re heading into the final three races of what’s been an absolutely wild 2025 F1 season. And honestly? We’ve got ourselves a proper championship fight – or at least, that’s what the standings suggest.

After Brazil, here’s where we stand:

• Lando Norris: 390 points
• Oscar Piastri: 366 points (24 behind)
• Max Verstappen: 341 points (49 behind)

Three races left: Las Vegas, Qatar (with a Sprint Race), and Abu Dhabi. 86 points still up for grabs.

Now, let me tell you what’s actually going to happen…

The Obvious Answer: Lando’s Got This

Look, I don’t want to be boring here, but let’s call it what it is – Lando Norris is going to be World Champion. And honestly, after Brazil, it’s not even close anymore.

That weekend in Brazilian Grand Prix? Absolute masterclass by the young Brit. Sprint win. Grand Prix win. Lights to flag, no drama, no mistakes. While everyone else was scrambling around, Lando just… drove away. That’s what champions do when it matters.

Here’s the thing people aren’t talking about enough – he’s got a 24-point cushion over his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri. Do you know what that means? He can finish third in every remaining race and still win the championship if Piastri wins them all. THIRD. That’s ridiculous.

Why Lando’s basically already won:

The math is stupid in his favor. Even if Oscar somehow finds god-mode and wins everything, Lando just needs to cruise into P2 or P3. He doesn’t need to be a race victory anymore – just smart.

And that McLaren? Still the fastest car out there. Yeah, Red Bull’s closed the gap a bit, but McLaren’s been quick everywhere – high-speed tracks, low-speed tracks, street circuits. They’ve got the package.

But here’s what I really love about Lando’s season – remember that DNF at Zandvoort? Also another victimize at US GP Sprint? Everyone thought it was disaster. Turned out to be the best thing that happened to him. It took the pressure off, let Piastri feel the championship weight for a while, and Lando just… came back stronger. That Brazil performance? That was a driver who knows he’s got this.

What needs to happen for Lando to lose?

A mechanical DNF in two of the three races. That’s basically it. Or he’d need to bin it in qualifying twice and have terrible races while Oscar wins everything. It’s not happening.

My prediction? He wraps it up in Qatar. Maybe even in the Sprint weekend if things go well in Vegas. We’re not making it to Abu Dhabi with this championship still alive.

The “But What If…” Scenario: Oscar Piastri

Okay, so technically Oscar’s still in this. 24 points back, three races to go. Mathematically possible, sure. But let’s be real for a second.

Oscar’s had a brilliant season – seven wins, same as Lando. Led the championship through summer. Made Mark Webber proud by being the first Aussie to lead the standings since, well, Mark himself back in 2010. The kid’s got serious talent.

But… something’s changed lately.

Did you see Brazil? Fifth place while his teammate won. And that 10-second penalty for the crash with Antonelli? That’s not the Oscar we saw in the middle of the season. That looked like a driver feeling the pressure, getting desperate, making mistakes.

Same thing in Austin – that Sprint collision with Lando. These aren’t the drives of someone who’s comfortable in a championship fight.

Could Oscar still win?

Technically? Yes. He needs to win at least two of the remaining races, hope Lando has a shocker somewhere, and basically pray for luck. But honestly, I don’t see it.

The confidence seems shaken. When you’re throwing it down the inside with 10-second penalties as the result, you’re not driving like a champion – you’re driving like someone who knows they’re running out of time.

If I’m being generous, I’d give Oscar maybe a 10-15% chance. And that’s only if Lando has mechanical issues or makes massive mistakes – which he just hasn’t been doing.

The Dream That Won’t Die: Max Verstappen

Max is 49 points back. Let me repeat that – 49 points with three races left.

Can we just acknowledge how insane it is that we’re even discussing Max as a possibility? The guy’s been on an absolute tear lately – dominated Austin and Mexico, drove from 14th to 3rd in Brazil. He’s reminding everyone why he’s a three-time world champion.

But here’s the brutal truth: it’s over for Max.

Even if – and this is a big if – he wins every single remaining race AND the Qatar Sprint, he still needs Lando to have multiple disasters. We’re talking P8 finishes or worse. Multiple times. While Oscar also can’t capitalize.

Do the math: Max winning everything gets him 36 more points. That brings him to 377. Lando’s on 390. Even with Max perfect, Lando just needs a couple of fourth-place finishes and it’s done.

Why is Max still fighting?

Pride. Championship DNA. And honestly, second place in the championship is still on the line against Oscar. Max doesn’t do “giving up” – it’s not in his vocabulary.

Plus, let’s be honest – watching Max pile pressure on the McLaren duo is spicy. If they start tripping over each other, if team orders get messy, if there’s drama… Max will be right there to pick up the pieces.

But winning the championship? Unless both McLarens get food poisoning or something equally ridiculous, it’s not happening. I’d give him a 1-2% chance, and that’s being extremely generous.

What’s Coming Up

Las Vegas – High-speed street circuit under the lights. McLaren wasn’t great here in 2024, but they’re a different beast this year. Still, this might be Max’s best shot at a win.

Qatar – Sprint weekend, so extra points flying around. High-speed track that should suit McLaren perfectly. This is probably where Lando clinches it.

Abu Dhabi – If we somehow make it here with the championship alive, strap in because it’ll be legendary. But honestly? I think we’ll be watching Lando’s coronation party by then.

My Actual Predictions

Let me be straight with you:

Lando Norris wins the championship – 85% chance, and I’m probably being conservative. He’s in total control, has the pace, has the points, and has the momentum. It’s happening.

Oscar Piastri finishes second – Maybe 10-12% chance he somehow pulls off a miracle and wins it. More likely he finishes as runner-up, which for a second full season? Pretty damn impressive.

Max Verstappen gets third – Let’s be real, he’s racing for the moral victory now. Best he can hope for is second in the standings if Oscar implodes. Championship? 1-2% max, and that’s only if we see biblical-level chaos.

The Bottom Line

Look, I know we’re supposed to keep the drama alive and pretend this is anyone’s championship. But come on. After Brazil, after watching Lando put together that kind of dominant performance when it mattered most…

Lando Norris is your 2025 Formula 1 World Champion.

The only question is whether he seals it in the Vegas lights, under the floodlights in Qatar, or during the season finale in Abu Dhabi.

My money? Qatar Sprint weekend. He’ll probably finish second in Vegas, do enough in the Sprint to extend the lead beyond catchable, and then cruise home in the Qatar GP with the championship in the bag.

Will it be one of the greatest championship battles ever? Honestly, probably not. It’s been a great season, but these final races look like a procession unless something wild happens.

But will Lando deserve it? Absolutely. Seven wins, incredible consistency, and when the pressure cranked up to maximum in Brazil, he delivered perfection.

Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer.

Lando Norris. 2025 World Champion. Get used to saying it.

And honestly? After years of “nearly but not quite,” watching Lando finally get his moment is going to be pretty special. He’s earned this.

The kid from Bristol who we all said was fast but couldn’t close. The guy who had all the speed but not quite the ruthlessness. The driver who made us laugh on Twitch streams and then wonder if he was serious enough for F1.

He’s about to prove everyone wrong.

Three races. One destiny. Let’s watch it unfold.